Category Archives: Project News

banner headline prediction

35 Years Of Climate Change Predictions

35 years since the first climate change predictions – were they alarmist?

prediction graphSince the 19th century, researchers have been warning about the global repercussions of human actions. James Hansen’s research group at  was the first to confirm that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions was altering the planet’s climate.

In their scientific article, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, they outlined how they developed the first predictive climate model that, taking into account greenhouse gas emissions, warned about the climate change that was already underway and the potential future scenarios.

At the time, this prediction was considered catastrophic and faced criticism from various sectors, including the oil industry, one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gasses emissions worldwide.

Were the early climate predictions really that inaccurate?

Critics of anthropogenic climate change often claim that climate predictions are consistently wrong and are frequently updated to downplay the issue. However, this perspective is misleading. prediction diagram

Climate predictions are indeed updated and refined as new data becomes available, reducing inherent uncertainties in modelling a complex, chaotic system like the climate. However, this doesn’t mean earlier predictions were wrong. They were made with less computing power, lower-quality data, and greater uncertainty about future emissions.

The key point is that climate responds differently to various emission scenarios, and predicting human behaviour regarding emissions is just as critical as forecasting climate responses.

In 1988, Hansen’s team analysed global average temperature data from 1958 to 1987 and developed three prediction scenarios—A, B, and C—projecting climate trends up to 2060.

Scenario A assumed a continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions, extending the growth pattern seen in the 1970s and 1980s indefinitely, with an annual increase of 1.5%. This scenario predicted rapid and substantial climate change, with a temperature increase of 0.9°C above the 1951-1980 average by 2000, 1.5°C by 2020, 3°C by 2040, and up to 4°C by 2060.

Scenario B anticipated a more gradual stabilization in emissions, resulting in a slower but still consistent temperature rise. It predicted a 0.5°C temperature increase by 2000 and 1.2°C by 2020. Predictions for scenario B extended until 2028, reaching nearly 1.4°C of temperature increase, as uncertainties grew significantly beyond that year.

Scenario C resembled scenario B initially but assumed a drastic reduction in emissions between 1990 and 2000, eventually stabilizing around 2010 and fluctuating between 0.6°C and 0.8°C of temperature increase.

You can explore climate predictions for these scenarios for your location using the Teaching the Future Data Dashboard.

Reviewing Hansen’s Model

predictions graphTo determine whether Hansen’s initial model was accurate or not, it’s insufficient to examine the predictions in isolation, as the three scenarios presented diverse outcomes. The key is to assess whether, based on actual greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades, the consequences align with Hansen’s predictions rather than deviating in unforeseen ways.

In 2020, researcher Zeke Hausfather from the University of California, Berkeley, along with collaborators, revaluated Hansen’s model. First, they analysed real observed data and they found that it closely resembled the predictions of scenario B, although with some irregularities. Recognizing variable emissions over the past three decades, researchers incorporated actual emissions data into Hansen’s climate model, resulting in remarkably accurate predictions. NASA global warming maps

Similar situations apply to subsequent models, not because they fail but because climate predictions depend on unpredictable global emissions. This leads to various scenarios, from extreme to intermediate, reflecting uncertain human behaviour. When emissions deviate from assumptions, climate outcomes also change, not due to model flaws but unpredictable human actions. Regular model updates use better data and computing power to adapt to changing circumstances, eliminating unfulfilled scenarios and projecting new ones.

Source: https://www.muyinteresante.es/naturaleza/61198.html

scorched earth banner image

Coping with the Scorching Heatwave: How Communities Are Adapting

As the planet grapples with the escalating effects of climate change, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense. Heatwaves, in particular, are posing a significant threat to human health, the environment, and daily life. These events have resulted in death tolls, with last summer’s heatwave killing more than 61,000 people across Europe. Heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable populations, are escalating concerns. temperature map

Governments and communities worldwide are mobilising to combat the heatwave menace. Europe, in particular, is taking proactive measures. The World Health Organization (WHO) has issued guidance to support national and local authorities in preparing for extreme heat events. Various cities have implemented heat action plans, established cooling centres, and educated residents on the risks associated with heatwaves.

Spain and Greece have enforced bans on outdoor work during the hottest hours of the day, responding to previous fatalities caused by heat-related illnesses. France’s heat watch warning system, launched after a deadly heatwave in 2003, sets an example for public announcements urging people to stay hydrated during such events. Germany has followed France’s lead and launched a campaign to address heatwave deaths.

Innovative initiatives are emerging to tackle the extreme heat, especially in urban areas where heat island effects are most significant.

Barcelona, Spain, proposes painting rooftops white to reflect the sun’s rays. Meanwhile, London’s historic buildings are showing signs of damage due to prolonged drought and heat, calling for modernisation that considers extreme temperatures.

At the individual level, people are adopting lifestyle changes to minimise heatwave impact, such as staying hydrated, avoiding outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and using energy-efficient appliances.

heat island imageCommunities are embracing tree planting and green space creation to combat the urban heat island effect and provide much-needed shade and cooling. Additionally, the advocacy for clean energy sources and stringent climate policies is gaining momentum to address the long-term effects of heatwaves.

Despite the ongoing threat, the collective efforts of society offer hope for a more resilient and sustainable future. With continued proactive measures and heightened environmental consciousness, individuals and communities strive to adapt and thrive in the face of heatwaves, forging a path towards a cooler, healthier planet.

The Teaching the Future project team believes school education is essential in dealing with these issues. It has published a report that reviewed and analysed education initiatives to improve teaching about climate change and its impacts and will create a training course for teachers to introduce data-driven science into the classroom.

Download the full report

Climate games and simulations for education

The Teaching the Future project has identified different interesting visualisations that help present climate change issues and a created a gallery of innovative games and simulations related to climate change and teaching the future. games image

Recent research by Imperial College, London has shown that young people aged 16-24 are most likely to be particularly concerned about the impacts of climate change. This is partly because climate information is often hard to understand and follow, especially when suggested actions require changes in lifestyle.

study on climate change anxiety published in the Lancet found that children and young people demonstrated climate anxiety and widespread dissatisfaction with government responses in countries across the world. This is partly because because the climate crisis is so complex and lacks a clear solution. Education clearly has a role to play in dealing with this.

Games on the subject of climate change are well-suited to address the challenge of dealing with the complex issues involved, engaging people in the challenges involved.

Games can help communicate climate change in a manner that spurs involvement and motivates participants to take action. This is partly because many innovative design features of games can be integrated to blur the boundaries between reality and the virtual world.

The integration of game thinking and game mechanics in education has been described as gamification. One of the central advantages of gamification is the enjoyment created by making tasks more engaging, fun and interesting to complete. In turn, that increases people’s motivation to complete them.

Research carried out by Yee (2016) identified six different game elements that motivate gamers and encourage participation.

Action (e.g., objectives)
Social (e.g., competition)
Mastery (e.g., scoring)
Achievement (e.g., awards, rewards)
Immersion (e.g., role playing) and
Creativity (e.g., customisation)

It is important to realise therefore that games and game-based learning are valuable approaches to teaching the complexity of addressing climate change and part of the toolbox that educators can use to engage young people.

Visit the TTF gallery to try out the innovative simulations and games.

ODD banner

Celebrating World Open Data Day

Open Data Day (ODD) was celebrated by the Open Data Charter this year on March 23rdODD logo 2023 . Open Data Day is an annual celebration of open data all over the world, where groups and communities gather to reach out to new people and build new solutions using open data.

Creating awareness around open data and its benefits aims to encourage governments, businesses, and civil society initiatives worldwide to adopt open data policies and inspire others to do the same.

Since 2015, the Open Knowledge Foundation – in cooperation with other NGOs from the open data world – has offered mini-grants to support the facilitation of events around the globe. This year’s Open Data Day gave out mini-grants for communities that work on: environmental data, tracking public money flows, open mapping, data for equal development, and ocean data for a thriving planet.

target groups

ODD europe

ODD is a chance for people around the world to support and encourage the adoption of open data policies by local, regional and central governments.

The Open Data Charter is a collaboration between over 170 governments and other organisations working to open up data based on a shared set of principles. EUROGEO has been a signatory of the Charter since 2019. It promotes policies and practices that enable governments and CSOs to collect, share, and use well-governed data, to respond effectively and accountably to the following focus areas: anti-corruption, climate action and pay equity.

The Teaching the Future project was presented by the project coordinator Karl Donert at the Open Data Charter series of events. EUROGEO has been involved in promoting access to open data through its projects and publications. The Teaching the Future data dashboard takes open climate data and makes it accessible to teachers and learners. Try out our open data climate dashboard.

TTF dashboard banner image

Testing the TTF Climate Data Dashboard

data dashboard imageTeaching the Future is an initiative to address the need for reliable authoritative climate-related data for students and teachers.

The Teaching the Future project has reviewed teacher needs, discussed the data issues with climate experts, teacher educators and climate scientists and invited responses from the wider educational community through involvement in the European Commission Education for Climate  initiative.

Data dashboards manage information to visually track, assess and displays a range of indicators, metrics and key data points to monitor the situation of a specific process.

Pilot testing of v1 of the Teaching the Future climate data dashboard is under way

dashboard imageA number of errors have been identified and bug fixes have been applied.

We have launched a second version of the data dashboard which is ready for testing – now there are 2 separate data dashboards
D1 – historical climate change data
D2 – predictions of future climate

Please support the project by helping us test the dashboard

You can access the latest version (v2) of the dashboard from
https://teachingthefuture.eu/climate-dashboards/

Download the guide/manual for data and dashboard functions

dashboard image -future climateOnce you have explored the data, we kindly ask you (including teachers and their students) to complete the short usability survey to help the dashboard development.

Did you find it easy to access?
Was the data easy to navigate? 
What features did you like?
What was most challenging?

Here are some activities you could try out

Historical data
Zoom in to your area/city/region country
Notice how the dashboard information changes
Now find a place nearer the pole – has it changed more or less?
What about the equator or Sahara desert?
What about mountain areas like the Alps? Or Seas like the Mediterranean?
Note you can expand each box and even download the data you selected and export it into Excel for further analysis

Prediction data
These are modelled data for the future based on low, medium or high greenhouse gas emissions
This is explained at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway
Again the likely impact of climate change in the future can be explored using the maps and data

These modelled predictions are the basis of much of our policy developments – the class could discuss the challenges of decision making with future uncertainty

Hoping you find it interesting

Belgrade city aerial

Second partner meeting in Serbia

On Friday, September 16, International School hosted experts, teachers and representatives of different partner organisations with the aim of making another step towards the establishment of effective and comprehensive climate change education.

This meeting was held in Belgrade, as part of the Teaching the Future project, which aims to implement education about climate change and the environment in teaching and learning programmes in all partner countries participating in this project – Belgium, Italy, Spain, Serbia, Greece and Cyprus. project-meeting belgrade

During the meeting, the results of the research conducted were presented and clear recommendations for the implementation of climate change education were established, taking into account the development of students’ critical thinking and problem-solving skills, as well as the development of teachers’ competencies. In addition, current initiatives to reduce the consequences of climate change and protect the environment were also presented.

At the end of September 2022, a comprehensive report on current climate change education practices was published. Download the report

The Report: Teaching the future – climate, citizenship and digital teaching – curriculum and pedagogical guidelines included an extensive literature review of different methodologies in climate change education as well as research findings conducted by project partners in their own countries. Through this research and focus group discussions, the report offers comprehensive recommendations and pedagogical guidelines for educators, organisations and governments from around the world. data dashboard image

We are convinced that only through quality education, which is focused on the scientific study of today’s world, for the sake of a better future, can we nurture students to become citizens of the world.

The next phase of the project will be to create, pilot and evaluate a digital data dashboard aggregating climate information, data and resources which will be easily accessible for schools and teachers.

lighteninanner pictureg b

One step closer to comprehensive climate change education

On Friday, September 16, the International School hosted experts, teachers and representatives of renowned organisations with the aim of approaching another step towards the establishment of effective and comprehensive climate change education.belgrade meeting

The meeting was held in Belgrade, as part of the project Teaching the Future, which aims to implement education about climate change and the environment in traditional teaching and learning programs in all partner countries participating in this project – Belgium, Italy, Spain, Serbia, Greece and Cyprus.

During the meeting, we presented the results of the conducted research and established clear steps for further implementation of climate change education, taking into account the development of students’ critical thinking and problem-solving skills, as well as the development of teachers’ competencies. In addition to the aforementioned advancements to the project tasks, current initiatives to reduce the consequences of climate change and to protect the environment were also presented.

The partners are convinced that only through quality education, which is focused on the scientific study of today’s world, for the sake of a better future, can we nurture students to become the citizens of the world.

doukas school

Green Flag for one of our school partners!

One of the Teaching the Future project partners, Doukas School, and more specifically its primary school, received once more, this year the Green Flag from the Hellenic Society for the Protection of NatureDoukas school image

 

The objective of this Programme is to change the behaviour of everyone within the school community so that the school will become a real “Eco School”.

This is achieved through the formulation and implementation of:

an “Eco-code” (a set of environmental behaviour standards), and the implementation of
an Environmental Action Plan (which involves all the surrounding area of the school and its conversion into a clean, attractive, and friendly space).

In every school, students and teachers establish an Environmental Committee, which addresses issues of energy, waste, and water. (later on, they can deal with other subjects such as transport, healthy living, biodiversity, consumerism, etc.).

At the same time, the Committee oversees the implementation of the “Action Plan” and the “Ecocode” with the participation of the whole school community. Finally, in order to achieve links with the local community and ensure the raising of public awareness, the school organises activities and events in cooperation with the local government and authorities.

Educational material is provided for all subjects dealt with by the Network.doukas pupils-3

Doukas Primary School was evaluated positively for the set of actions and the Eco-code that was implemented. Among others, it was awarded for the Actions “I learn about forests” (2nd grade) and “Recycle-Reuse” (3rd and 4th grade).

Doukas School contributes to all aspects of the Teaching the Future project and will develop internal and external evaluation of the results of the project:

– a report on Teaching the Future
– a digital data dashboard for accessing climate data / information
– a teacher training course

Find out more

 

TTF presented at EUROGEO 2022

Teaching the Future was presented at EUROGEO 2022, a conference held on Lesvos island, Island, Greece on 5-6 May 2022.

The event attracted more than 120 educators and researchers from over 35 countries. Over 90 presentations, 5 workshops and 6 posters were presented.

EUROGEO conference Lesvos 2022 took the theme “RE-VISIONING GEOGRAPHY FOR SUSTAINABILITY IN THE POST-COVID ERA”. The following were the Conference Strands:
– How do geographers, universities, companies and education respond to Sustainable Development Goals and complex challenges in the context of the COVID pandemic?
– What is the role of Geography in the landscape of spatial technologies and open data and how can these assist in achieving SDGs?
– How new eco-social challenges are positioned in the face of a post-pandemic Global Change?
– How can we explore novel educational contexts and resources to transform towards sustainability of socio-ecological systems?
– What conceptual frameworks and strategies can contribute to the construction of societies based on human welfare and the care of nature?
– What are the interactions between Sustainable Development Goals, international migrations and refugees?

See the Full conference programme

The Teaching the Future presentation can be viewed here or downloaded from Slideshare.

Teaching The Future Project Launches

We are pleased to announce the launch of the Teaching The Future Project!

It is based on the needs for climate education identified by the “Teach the Future” campaign. Students from around the world have been protesting at national government’s lack of action on the climate crisis. The campaign asks schools teach young people about the urgency, severity and scientific basis of the climate crisis and its links to health. climate strike image

Teaching the Future will provide opportunities for young people to become informed and empowered to address the urgency of their future in the context of climate change. The resources will help youngsters understand the background and science of climate change. It will establish access to tools and resources that allow a scientific, data-based, school education response to climate change education, one that is set in the context of the Global Goals for Sustainable Development.

Teaching The Future suggests there is great potential for schools, colleges and other secondary education institutions to use innovative digital technologies to integrate climate and associated environmental issues into their curricula.

Teaching The Future encourages education access to open scientific data on climate. Open data is an initiative championed by the European Commission, where information is available to use for instance through European sources like the European Environment Agency Climate Data Centre (link: https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/climate/dc), the European Space Agency Climate Initiative (http://cci.esa.int/data) and the EU Open Data Portal (https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/home). These resources can be enhanced with global data sets from for instance NASA (https://www.data.gov/climate/) and Open Climate Data (https://openclimatedata.net/).

You can find out more about the project here.