Category Archives: research

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Bringing resources, tools and training for climate education

report imageThe Teaching the Future project is set in the context of the EU Green Deal and the Global Goals for Sustainable Development.

Teaching The Future is based on the need to tackle the climate emergency and ecological crisis.

Curriculum opportunities and relevant teaching approaches have been evaluated through a research report. Pedagogies for active citizenship are encouraged including dealing with climate data and citizen science approaches that can be used in response to local issues. Download the report

Teaching The Future establishes access to tools and resources that makes scientific data-based resources on climate change education available for schools.

dashboard minumum temperatures EuropeTeaching the Future provides access to climate information through data dashboards and a resource toolkit. This provides access to reliable climate change data for use in schools by teachers of different subjects.

The project offers open access online teacher training for teachers to help young people to be informed and empowered to address the urgency of their future, understanding the background and science behind climate change.

The project has developed an online training course for teachers giving access to scientific data and reducing the likelihood of misinformation.training modules image

The training course encourages teachers to create opportunities for the critical assessment of information reliability and establish and use innovative approaches to teaching and learning about climate in curriculum areas.

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Climate data dashboard and resources update

dashboard imageBased on feedback received from the education Community and our review of climate education research, we have made substantial additions and improvements to the Teaching the Future climate data dashboards created as part of the Teaching the Future Erasmus Plus project – available at: https://teachingthefuture.eu/climate-dashboards/

The data sets now include European data from Copernicus, providing climate data at a much higher resolution than the global IPCC data.

The dashboards now provide data on both temperature and precipitation information – you only need to zoom in to Europe for the data to show.

We created a gallery of teacher-verified education resources for you to explore and use (https://www.eurogeography.eu/projects/geodem/gallery-of-resources-2/).dashboard minumum temperatures Europe

The resources include data and visualisations, multimedia tools and resources and climate education projects.

UPDATE: A training module is now available with a GeoInquiry to help you navigate the data successfully.

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35 Years Of Climate Change Predictions

35 years since the first climate change predictions – were they alarmist?

prediction graphSince the 19th century, researchers have been warning about the global repercussions of human actions. James Hansen’s research group at  was the first to confirm that the increase in greenhouse gas emissions was altering the planet’s climate.

In their scientific article, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, they outlined how they developed the first predictive climate model that, taking into account greenhouse gas emissions, warned about the climate change that was already underway and the potential future scenarios.

At the time, this prediction was considered catastrophic and faced criticism from various sectors, including the oil industry, one of the largest contributors to greenhouse gasses emissions worldwide.

Were the early climate predictions really that inaccurate?

Critics of anthropogenic climate change often claim that climate predictions are consistently wrong and are frequently updated to downplay the issue. However, this perspective is misleading. prediction diagram

Climate predictions are indeed updated and refined as new data becomes available, reducing inherent uncertainties in modelling a complex, chaotic system like the climate. However, this doesn’t mean earlier predictions were wrong. They were made with less computing power, lower-quality data, and greater uncertainty about future emissions.

The key point is that climate responds differently to various emission scenarios, and predicting human behaviour regarding emissions is just as critical as forecasting climate responses.

In 1988, Hansen’s team analysed global average temperature data from 1958 to 1987 and developed three prediction scenarios—A, B, and C—projecting climate trends up to 2060.

Scenario A assumed a continuous increase in greenhouse gas emissions, extending the growth pattern seen in the 1970s and 1980s indefinitely, with an annual increase of 1.5%. This scenario predicted rapid and substantial climate change, with a temperature increase of 0.9°C above the 1951-1980 average by 2000, 1.5°C by 2020, 3°C by 2040, and up to 4°C by 2060.

Scenario B anticipated a more gradual stabilization in emissions, resulting in a slower but still consistent temperature rise. It predicted a 0.5°C temperature increase by 2000 and 1.2°C by 2020. Predictions for scenario B extended until 2028, reaching nearly 1.4°C of temperature increase, as uncertainties grew significantly beyond that year.

Scenario C resembled scenario B initially but assumed a drastic reduction in emissions between 1990 and 2000, eventually stabilizing around 2010 and fluctuating between 0.6°C and 0.8°C of temperature increase.

You can explore climate predictions for these scenarios for your location using the Teaching the Future Data Dashboard.

Reviewing Hansen’s Model

predictions graphTo determine whether Hansen’s initial model was accurate or not, it’s insufficient to examine the predictions in isolation, as the three scenarios presented diverse outcomes. The key is to assess whether, based on actual greenhouse gas emissions in recent decades, the consequences align with Hansen’s predictions rather than deviating in unforeseen ways.

In 2020, researcher Zeke Hausfather from the University of California, Berkeley, along with collaborators, revaluated Hansen’s model. First, they analysed real observed data and they found that it closely resembled the predictions of scenario B, although with some irregularities. Recognizing variable emissions over the past three decades, researchers incorporated actual emissions data into Hansen’s climate model, resulting in remarkably accurate predictions. NASA global warming maps

Similar situations apply to subsequent models, not because they fail but because climate predictions depend on unpredictable global emissions. This leads to various scenarios, from extreme to intermediate, reflecting uncertain human behaviour. When emissions deviate from assumptions, climate outcomes also change, not due to model flaws but unpredictable human actions. Regular model updates use better data and computing power to adapt to changing circumstances, eliminating unfulfilled scenarios and projecting new ones.

Source: https://www.muyinteresante.es/naturaleza/61198.html