Module 4: DATA, TOOLS AND RESOURCES – Climate GeoInquiry 3

Emission scenarios

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have developed sophisticated approaches attempting to predict the impact of future global warming on world temperatures based on different emission scenarios .

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Source: IPCC Global Climate Projections

The different emission scenarios used are based an analysis of the driving forces that provide alternative visions (low, medium and high) of how the future greenhouse gas emissions might unfold.

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According to the IPCC Report (2000),  these driving forces of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are produced by very complex dynamic systems, determined by factors such as demographic changes, socio-economic development, and technological change.

If you want to find out more about GHG emissions:
– Look at the energy emission scenarios from Energy Education.
– Explore the latest updates on Climate mitigation and energy targets in Europe
– Visit Our World In data: CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

<–  Climate GeoInquiry 2


Predicting future climate

The Teaching the Future dashboard visualises how temperature may change in the future.

ELABORATE: How might the different predicted scenarios affect the climate? 

Using the Dashboard of estimated temperature evolution between 2011 and 2100 according to IPCC Models

Activate the layers of the three maps showing estimated mean temperatures

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Zoom into the location / city where you live

Compare the predicted future mean temperatures under the three emission scenarios (low, medium, high) respectively coloured green, yellow and red for the three estimated periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100).

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The low emission scenario  envisages a technology-optimistic but realistic scenario for the global energy transition from today to 2050. Find out more

The high emission scenario is often referred to as “business as usual”, suggesting that is a likely outcome if society does not make concerted efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Find out more

Climate GeoInquiry 4  –>